Beating Cognitive Bias with Generative AI and Bayesian Reasoning

Putting Generative AI and Bayes to Work for Objectivity in a World Full of Hopes and Dreams!

Cognitive Biases : Anti-Smart

Cognitive biases — like optimism bias, confirmation bias and my-side bias — can subtly distort our interpretation of information and events. Left unchecked, they lead us to over-value the evidence that fits our pet theory and under-value anything that contradicts it. This is anti-IQ.

In this post, I’ll explore how a simple Bayesian approach, powered by generative AI (e.g. ChatGPT), can help you step outside your own biases - that can certainly be really tough to shake off - and arrive at a more balanced assessment of competing hypotheses, even if they run counter to your feelings or intuitions. 🫤

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Common Biases : Quick Tour

• Optimism bias: the tendency to overestimate positive outcomes.

• Confirmation bias: the habit of seeking or remembering evidence that confirms our beliefs.

• Myside bias: the inclination to generate and evaluate evidence in a way that favours our own side.

All of these pull us away from objective reasoning and a grasp of reality.

There is only so far that projecting a ‘reality’ can take a person.

For an example, I knew an investor who was utterly convinced their new “nappy-vending” venture was about to take off. They’d even flown to Hong Kong to build a working prototype — a machine dispensing nappies much like you’d buy a Coke or chocolate bar from a vending machine in a train station. Despite red flags — the mantra was: “It’s happening! It’s happening!” What actually happened was a big hit to the bank.

So here is a quick and — I have found — super useful and instantly sobering Bayesian-AI method for staying grounded in what is - afterall - the truly wonderful fabric of reality: of what is actual and what has genuine potential.

There’s something about being deluded that just isn’t very appealing. Making a wrong decision or taking up a course of action, based on limited information, sure. But persisting in interpretations or mental models that increasingly drift apart from reality - where one has all the evidence readily available - is definitely a firm anti-value in the IQ Mindware ecosystem. This kind of scenario is the opposite of smart and adaptable! And it’s the opposite of having ‘epistemic virtue’ - such as a love of the truth or taking responsibility for the quality of one’s evidence.

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie." Miyamoto Musashi (1584-1645), Japanese swordsman, artist, and writer.

Musashi prevailed in 62 duels - many to the death - and we can infer was a good judge of reality!

Sasaki Kojiro, right, engages Miyamoto Musashi on the shores of Ganryū Island.